Humans | Analysis 20 May 2019 By Ruby Prosser ScullySome politicians and commentators have called for opinion polls to be scrapped following prime minister Scott Morrison’s shock win in the Australian federal election – the latest in a string of perceived polling failures in recent history. For two years, polls put the left-leaning Labor party ahead of the more conservative Coalition. While the gap progressively shrank in the six months ahead of the election, the figures were consistently in favour of a Labor win. Of the 16 polls held since the election was called last month, all went in favour of the Labor party when responders were asked to pick from the leading two parties. On the eve of the election, four key opinion polls had Bill Shorten’s Labor at a 51-49 over Morrison’s Coalition. Exit polls and betting sites also got it wrong, with Sportsbet set to pay out more at least A$5.21 million. Advertisement As the picture of a Coalition victory … [Read more...] about How did pollsters get the Australian election result so wrong?
Local election results 2016
Turkey’s opposition looked poised to win control of the country’s two biggest cities Monday as it dealt President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s conservative party one of its most serious electoral setbacks in years. The opposition won Ankara, a ruling party stronghold for decades, and was leading a tight race for mayor in Istanbul, according to unofficial figures Monday. The leader who has dominated Turkish politics for 16 years declared victory despite the opposition gains. Sunday’s local elections were widely seen as a gauge of support for Erdogan as the nation of 81 million faces a daunting economic recession. They were also a first test for Erdogan — who has been accused of increasingly authoritarian tendencies — since he got widely expanded presidential powers last year. If confirmed, the swings in Ankara and Istanbul could be excruciating for the politician who campaigned hard to retain hold of them. The opposition also retained its hold over Izmir, … [Read more...] about Erdogan faces serious setbacks in Turkish local elections
A federal government watchdog cleared former Interior Department Secretary Ryan Zinke of allegations he violated the Hatch Act by attempting to influencing a special election in Pennsylvania, according to a report. In a letter obtained by CNN, the Office of Special Counsel wrote an “investigation found no evidence that you violated the Hatch Act during this event.”The Hatch Act prohibits federal employees expending government resources for political activities. The Office of Special Counsel is a separate body from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia in the 2016 presidential election. In a statement to CNN, Zinke said the probe’s conclusion was “no surprise.” “Every false allegation and subsequent investigation has resulted in the same conclusion: I followed all rules, regulations, and most importantly the law,” the former Trump administration official said, … [Read more...] about Federal Watchdog Clears Ryan Zinke of Alleged Election Interference
Pedro Sánchez has not waited until 2020 for the next general election in Spain, the four-year limit since the last one the rules impose, nor this autumn or summer, after the local, European and regional elections on May 26th. He has not even waited until that Super Sunday near spring's end, as had been rumoured. He has chosen Sunday, April 28, for the next national ballot. READ MORE: Spanish PM calls snap election after budget defeat April 11th would have been the very earliest possibility, with the 54-day window from dissolving parliament until the vote stipulated in Spanish electoral law. There were unnamed sources in the papers suggesting Palm Sunday, April 14th. In the end, the Prime Minister has calculated that it was best to wait until after the Easter holidays, in case too many potential voters are busy sunning themselves on the beach, enjoying the sights abroad or taking part in the processions. Going so early indicates weakness: the government only … [Read more...] about ANALYSIS: What the snap election could mean for Spain, Catalonia and Brexit
Benjamin Goggin, provided by Published 11:01 pm PST, Monday, February 11, 2019 Ron Jenkins/Getty Images An Israeli private spy company attempted to influence a local US election as part of a larger attempt to infiltrate American politics, according to a report from The New Yorker. They used fake websites, social-media posts, and staged interactions as part of an effort to influence the public perception of specific targets, the report said. The group tried numerous times to work with Donald Trump's campaign in 2016 and engaged in other efforts that targeted the US State Department, the report said. Psy-Group, a defunct private intelligence agency staffed with former Israeli spies, attempted to influence at least one local US election and other domestic affairs, according to a report from The New Yorker's Adam Entous and Ronan Farrow. The company even courted President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign and is now under investigation by the special counsel Robert Mueller, the … [Read more...] about A company run by former Israeli spies reportedly tried to influence a local US election — and courted Trump’s campaign