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You are here: Home / Rich Lowry / Midterms deliver ‘reality check’ on 2020 presidential map

Midterms deliver ‘reality check’ on 2020 presidential map

November 10, 2018 politico Leave a Comment

Democrats winding up to challenge President Donald Trump in 2020 have long approached the electoral map with two goals in mind: Reestablish the party’s dominance in the upper Midwest, and expand the competitive terrain to include several new, traditionally conservative states. Tuesday served as a reminder of how difficult that will be. Story Continued Below Despite drawing closer to Republicans in marquee races in Georgia, Arizona and Texas — all hopeful signs — Democrats nevertheless ran into traditional ceilings in those states. They also failed to pick off Iowa’s Republican governor, Kim Reynolds — despite near-optimal conditions of a freshman incumbent, massive turnout and tariffs weighing heavily on rural voters — and lost the Ohio gubernatorial race, winning just nine of 88 counties after Trump carried the state by 9 percentage points in 2016. Yet those statewide defeats Tuesday were balanced with promising signs such as the election of new Democratic governors in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Gov. Tom Wolf‘s easy reelection in Pennsylvania. Rather than broadening the electoral map, the midterm elections suggested a return in 2020 to the same, narrow form of trench warfare that has marked recent presidential campaigns. “Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada: That’s the presidency right there,” said Paul Maslin, a top Democratic pollster. “In a really good Democratic year, could Georgia or Arizona come into play? Yeah, sure. But I’m talking about winning … We’re talking about winning here, we’re not talking about some fanciful notions.” No red state has appeared riper… [Read full story]




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